Looking Back on Predictions
Those who have followed this blog for a long time know that I like to do speculative posts at times. These tend to be video game related posts, usually delving just as much into theorycrafting as they do anything else. That said, I like writing them and typically have a lot of fun in the process of creating them.
One thing I don’t do a good job of, however, is looking back at those posts when it comes time to see what I got right and got wrong. I’m not alone in this. Nearly every sports writer or pundit suffers from the same problem. There’s an entire Twitter account dedicated to calling these freezing cold takes out. If you’re a sports fan, give it a read. It’s great entertainment.
With one of the final posts of 2019, I wanted to take a moment and go back and look at my theorycrafting posts, speculative posts, and just general guessing-type posts I’ve written. What did I get wrong? For that matter, what did I get right? I sure as hell don’t remember. Come and discover right along with me.
The most recent purely speculative post I’ve written is also one of the least successful, if not inconclusive results-wise, posts that I’ve written. Pokemon Go players have received zero of the Pokemon I listed in this post as Community Day events in the time since this post was written in April 2019. Two of the Pokemon listed in this post, Shuckle and Electrike, have had their shinies released, albeit in very different ways. Shuckle got its shiny released as part of an event and featured boosted spawns as a result. While this isn’t Community Day, I’ll still take this as a win. Electrike, on the other hand, didn’t even receive a formal announcement.
What I Got Right – Shuckle (kind of).
What I Got Wrong – Electrike.
Inconclusive – Everything else.
In this post, I mentioned how the implementation of Smeargle was the worst thing to happen in Pokemon Go ever, including the original gym system. While I did mention it in the post, I failed to call out that the biggest mistake Niantic had made to that point was actually the failure to re-implement the footstep tracker that allowed you to locate Pokemon in the early days of the game. This is a grievous oversight on my part. On the plus side, my post no longer matters, because Niantic has since introduced the paid Regigigas event, which is actually the worst thing to happen in the game’s history.
What I Got Right – How frustrating Smeargle was until more info about its mechanics were released.
What I Got Wrong – Pretty much everything else.
Inconclusive – How Niantic will alienate its player base next.
This post was a work of art except for one crucial mistake.
What I Got Right – That it’s super inconsistent for mature characters to be banned from Smash, yet for Bayonetta to somehow be on the roster.
What I Got Wrong – Captain Falcon does not shout his own name during sex. The Wii Fit Trainer does that.
Inconclusive – How much rage I’ll have to hear from the Smash fan base when Edelgard is inevitably added to Smash as DLC.
For the second generation in a row, we did not get new Mega Evolutions in a new Pokemon game. While Gen VII brought us Z-moves, Sword and Shield brought us Dynamax and Gigantamax evolutions. The latter is…kind of?…like Mega Evolution. Except not. And it’s not as good. But it’s the closest thing we’re getting. So how did the list do?
Of the 23 Pokemon capable of Gigantamaxing, 22 are from either Sword and Shield or from Generation I. The lone exception? Garbodor. Seriously. This list was doomed to fail as a result. But at least there was one exact hit.
What I Got Right – Lapras! I mean, kind of. But I’m counting it.
What I Got Wrong – Everything else, both literally and by my technicality.
Inconclusive – Why Generation VIII isn’t called Pokemon The Ocho.
At last count, there were 25 dual typings left that hadn’t existed in any Pokemon game to this point. Surely one of the ten Stephanie and I picked to theorycraft will show up on Sword and Shield. Right?
What We Got Right – Zen mode Galarian Darmanitan, at least in terms of that specific typing existing.
What I Got Wrong – Literally every other guess.
Inconclusive – There’s bound to be a part two to Sword and Shield. Just like there was Emerald to Ruby and Sapphire and Ultra Sun/Ultra Moon to Sun/Moon. So this list isn’t quite dead yet.